WINNING
NFL BETTING TIPS
FREE
NFL BETTING TIPS
Football
Point Spreads - Spotting
Bargains!
Can 3½ points be a better line
than 9½ points? You bet!
Football
scoring is a "numbers game" … points are added to the score in units
of 2, 3, 6, 7 or 8. With this in mind, its important to realize
that CERTAIN POINT SPREADS posted by the bookmaker ARE
MORE IMPORTANT than others. Because a relatively high percentage
of games end with a margin of victory in increments of these numbers,
it's imperative that attention be paid to the most meaningful point
spreads.
Well
over half of all pro football games end with one of ten possible
differences in the score: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14, or 17 (not
necessarily in that order!)
So,
the "Half-Point" move off any of these numbers can represent a significant
betting opportunity.
Watch
for Threes!
For example, a line of +3.5 is a
BARGAIN compared to that same underdog at +3 … this indicates
that the favored team must now score a touchdown as opposed to a
field goal in order to win the game. So, in essence, a line move
to +3.5 can be considered much more significant that, say, a line
move from +5 to +5.5.
And,
by the same logic, a point spread that moves from +3 to +2.5 indicates
a RISKY BET on the underdog. These half-point line changes
from a point spread of 3 can be much more significant than larger
changes.
For
instance, a line change from +7.5 to +9.5 is hardly worth noticing.
Because football games do not usually end with a margin of 8 or
9, the move from +7.5 to +9.5 doesn't make much difference. When
a team covers, or fails to cover, 7.5 points, they almost always
cover, or fail to cover, 9.5 as well.
Check
out the live lines here and see if you can spot a bargain!
Lucky
13
To
gamble on football, it's important to realize that certain scores
are more likely to occur than other scores. Would you believe that
only 13 different numbers represent more than 66% of all NFL
football scores!
It's
true! When predicting final football scores, you must take into
account these REAL NUMBERS …
7, 10, 13, 14, 16, 17, 20, 21, 23, 24, 27, 28, and 31
These
numbers (plus scores in the category of "Over 40") are the only
real numbers worth considering when forecasting the final outcome.
Always adjust your predictions accordingly.
In
other words, say you've forecast the Titans over the Rams by a score
of 30-26 … this score probably won't happen! Adjust your numbers
to a score with a higher probability of occurring … say, 31-24 or
28-27. Now you are dealing with a point spread worthy of consideration.
|
